2008 NFL Predictions – Week 11

Quarterbacks spontaneously combust each year, it’s just not widely reported

Starting last week and continuing until the final week of the season, the NFL will be broadcasting games on Thursday nights (and, of course, during the day on Thanksgiving). That means no more Sunday morning scrambling to get these columns in on time. This increases the likelihood that I’ll get more picks wrong because of injuries, suspensions or some moment of clarity that would have normally come to me over the weekend. Good thing I have a 33-game buffer: I’m going to need it.

(Home team in caps)

NY Jets over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Revenge game: New England beat the Jets in their house, now it’s the Pats turn to get dropped in front of their fans.

ATLANTA FALCONS over Denver Broncos

“Denver Running Back” has officially replaced “Seattle Wide Receiver” as the most dangerous job in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles over CINCINNATI BENGALS

That whole “picking the teams playing at home coming off a bye” rule that I try to follow doesn’t apply to the Bengals, even if they did finally get a win against Jacksonville.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Chicago Bears

I know I promised not to talk about my fantasy leagues ever again, but it is worth pointing out that if my main team is Spinal Tap, my quarterbacks are the drummers. Starting with Tom Brady, almost every quarterback I have picked up has gone down with an injury of varying seriousness — Matt Schaub, Jon Kitna, Trent Edwards and Kyle Orton. Two of them (Brady and Kitna) are done for the season and four of them left games early during a week I started them, completely screwing me over for points. Jason Campbell has survived the longest and I’m currently starting Chad Pennington, so Dolphins and Redskins fans should be holding their breath.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Houston Texans

The Colts are playing better than they were the last time these two teams played and the Texans are playing worse. Blame my fantasy team for Matt Schaub’s MCL spontaneously combusting.

New Orleans Saints over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs have looked frisky the past two weeks, so I won’t be surprised if I get this one wrong. I’m willing to pick the Saints here, even if they are slowly turning into the Bengals: a team full of talent, especially on offense, that just can’t get it together for one reason or another.

MIAMI DOLPHINS over Oakland Raiders

Question of the year: Does Al Davis realize how much worse the team has played ever since Lane Kiffin was fired or is he too busy frightening young children to notice?

NY GIANTS over Baltimore Ravens

My New Jersey-bred inferiority complex prevents me from accepting the Giants as favorites to return to the Super Bowl. I just can’t. Earlier in the season I was able to pick these games semi-rationally; now I expect us to lose every week just to off-set all the praise we’re receiving.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS over Minnesota Vikings

Carnell Williams has been reactivated by the Bucs, which probably won’t have much impact on the outcome of this game. But you know the sign of a good nickname? People forgetting that your real name isn’t actually Cadillac.

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Detroit Lions

Bye week, at Oakland, home for Detroit: has any team had an easier three-week stretch this year than the Panthers? Jake Delhomme threw more than half as many interceptions (4) as completed passes (7) last week and they still won. If coach John Fox had a sense of humor, he’d sit Jake this entire game and just play a man down on offense. They’d probably still win by 20 points.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over St. Louis Rams

I still believe Samurai Mike will turn them around eventually and deserves to keep the head coaching job. He hasn’t gotten that first win yet, but I’ll be damned if they didn’t play their hearts out against Arizona on Monday. It didn’t help that Shaun Hill was doing his best impression of Brett Favre, chucking interceptions right into the hands of the Cardinals. I was on the phone with my best friend Tony while this game was on and when the Niners got the ball back for that final drive he said “Watch Hill come out and announce his retirement and then show up five minutes later on the sidelines wearing an Arizona jersey.”

Arizona Cardinals over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Speaking of that game: how painful must it have been for 49ers offensive coordinator Mike Martz to watch Kurt Warner throw for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns against his team? I can just imagine Martz in his hotel room after the game, Super Bowl XXXIV on in the background while he leaves a drunken voicemail on Warner’s phone about how he misses the quarterback’s musk. “When this season ends, Kurt, I think you and me should get an apartment together!”

San Diego Chargers over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

At this rate, Big Ben is going to be taking snaps from a wheelchair by week 14. While that might limit his mobility, it could make him harder to tackle.

Tennessee Titans over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It’s a travesty that the Titans haven’t been on national television more this season. I love watching great defensive teams.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS over Dallas Cowboys

I know Tony Romo is supposed to play this week, but he won’t be 100 percent if he does and the Cowboys are still a mess. The ’Skins are at home coming off a bye and smell blood.

BUFFALO BILLS over Cleveland Browns

I don’t know what happened to the Bills the last three weeks, but I’m not ready to give up on them, especially going against a team that apparently gave up on themselves.

Last Week: 11-3

Season: 88-55

Post-Election Paella: An Unorthodox Week 10 NFL Picks Column

‘Nough said.

In light of a busy election week and the early start to the NFL weekend sneaking up on me, I’m serving you a mixed-dish of commentary on things that have nothing to do with football (or traditional Latin cooking, for that matter). The usual NFL picks columns will return next week in all their boring glory. And now for something completely different…

 

Rock and roll means well, but it can’t help tellin’ young boys lies

Sunday’s concert at the Moon featuring co-headliners the Hold Steady and the Drive-By Truckers was everything I had dreamed it would be before the actual bill even came to fruition.  A long time before the bands’ “Rock and Roll Means Well” Tour was announced, I had hoped to one day see two of my favorite acts paired together in concert.

The Hold Steady and the Truckers — arguably two of the best bands in the country — are perfectly suited to joining up for a tour, indie acts with distinctive takes on working-class rock like Bruce Springsteen and Thin Lizzy and classicist punk like the Clash and the Replacements. I saw a similar pairing of acts in that vein — Against Me! with Ted Leo & the Pharmacists — a month previously in Orlando. That show was incredible in its own right, but the “Rock and Roll Means Well” Tour was one of the best I’ve ever seen.

I arrived at the Moon with my girlfriend’s dad and two of his closest friends, a cross-generational posse symbolic of music’s ability to unite a diverse group of people into one nation under a groove. Their company gave the 3+ hours of soul-stirring rock additional emotional significance for me, the inspiring knowledge that growing up, having a career and raising children don’t necessarily equate to losing your edge and youthful exuberance for music.

That sentiment goes tenfold for the members of the Hold Steady and the Drive-By Truckers. Both bands put on energetic, life-affirming sets and the lively enthusiasm they had for performing was infectious. The two groups collaborated at different points of the show, including a passionate take on Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” and a joyous romp through Blue Oyster Cult’s “Burnin’ for You.”

Taking place only two days before the election, it was a rousing reminder of music’s dual ability to reflect on politics and society while providing the personal soundtrack to the lives of many.

 

Ballin’ for Obama

I have only my gut reaction, the support of my peers and circumstantial statistics to back up this belief, but you can’t look at the NBA box scores from Wednesday night and tell me some of those unbelievable stat lines didn’t have a little something to do with Barack Obama winning the election. The Spurs’ Tony Parker joined Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan as the only players to ever have 50+ points and 10+ assists (he was also 3 rebounds shy of a triple-double). The Suns’ Amare Stoudemire had 49 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals and 2 blocks, while only missing 4 field goals and none of his 15 free throws. LeBron James dropped 41 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals, while Dwyane Wade contributed 29 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals and 3 blocks.

And that was only the four best performances out of the list of players of many races from all over the world who put up great numbers in the NBA the night after the first black President of the United States (and huge basketball fan) was elected. While watching these ridiculous stats run across the ESPN SportsCenter news ticker with my friend Josh following the Lakers game, I casually said, “Man, those guys must’ve been amped about Obama winning.” He turned to look at me, contemplated the notion and then nodded. “Yeah, you’re probably right.”

I’m not suggesting that every NBA player went out there and balled his mind out because of Obama. Plenty of players had good, average or just plain bad games. I’m also not ignoring that some of the best stat lines came in games that went into overtime (Parker’s game had two overtimes) or were the result of a player carrying the load for his team (Stoudemire). I’m just pointing out that you usually see just a handful of notable stat lines on a nightly basis; the amount of great performances last night was unreal. Check some of those box scores and you’ll see players ranging from up and coming studs (Al Jefferson) to role players (Luke Ridnour) stuffing the stat sheets.

ESPN NBA analyst John Hollinger, their numbers and formulas guru, previewed his new statistical tool — Adjusted Game Score — as a way to put the performances into context with other great ones from the past seven years, like Kobe Bryant’s 81-point game (no. 1). Stoudemire’s landed at 15, while Parker came in at 43. LeBron and Wade, as impressive as they were, didn’t make the top 200.

But neither Hollinger’s formulas nor anything else can explain why there were so many great performances last night.

“The fact that two of them happened on one night is amazing, and even moreso this early in the season,” Hollinger wrote. “Since offense tends to improve sharply as the season goes on, most of the top AGS marks come later in the season.”

The improbability of two top 50 AGS marks happening in one night at the start of the season, along with the additional achievements of many other players, lends itself to speculation and my theory comes from my own personal experience. Ever since election night I have been filled with more hope, confidence and energy than I have in a long time. I figure if I’m working, writing and going through my daily life with an extra bounce in my step, it’s more than a little possible that competitive professional athletes elevated their game with the added emotion of such an historic occasion.

 

And in honor of said historic occasion…

…I leave you with this gift for your viewing pleasure

NFL Week 10 Picks below. One love, ya’ll. Peace.

 

(Home team in caps)

 

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS over Denver Broncos

ATLANTA FALCONS over New Orleans Saints

Tennessee Titans over CHICAGO BEARS

Jacksonville Jaguars over DETROIT LIONS

MIAMI DOLPHINS over Seattle Seahawks

MINNESOTA VIKINGS over Green Bay Packers

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Buffalo Bills

NY JETS over St. Louis Rams

Baltimore Ravens over HOUSTON TEXANS

Carolina Panthers over OAKLAND RAIDERS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Indianapolis Colts

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS over Kansas City Chiefs

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over NY Giants

ARIZONA CARDINALS over San Francisco 49ers

Note: Although this blog wasn’t posted on Word Press until after 10 p.m. EST, the same column was posted at my blog at Tallahassee.com earlier this afternoon, so the Cleveland-Denver came was not in progress at the time. – Matt Gilmour

 

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 77-52

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 9

NEAT!!

Not that I need your permission to begin these columns on off-topic tangents, but do you mind if I rant about the end of the FSU-Georgia Tech game from yesterday? Yes, I’m still bitter. Not as much as my sister following Georgia’s loss to Florida, but ornery nonetheless.

I realize that it’s easy, expected and completely presumptuous to play armchair coach, especially with the benefit of hindsight. But when a coaching decision prompts everyone in the room with me to cry out in disbelief and leads to half of my boy Josh’s Facebook friends (including former FSU lineman David Castillo) simultaneously updating their status to reflect the same reaction, you’ve earned the scrutiny.

Below are two sets of statistics that bear mentioning:

-Jermaine Thomas: 9 carries, 130 yards (14.4 yds/carry)

-Marcus Sims: 6 carries, 9 yards (1.5 yds/carry)

In case it isn’t obvious from those numbers, Jermaine Thomas was murdering Georgia Tech all game, especially on FSU’s final drive. On four straight running plays, he pushed the ball ahead 36 yards and set us up for a score inside the 10-yard-line. Yet he wasn’t given the ball on second and goal with a chance to take the lead with under a minute to go, despite Tech’s inability to stop him. Instead, FSU gave the ball to Sims, who fumbled the ball in the end zone. Georgia Tech recovered it, game over.

I just want to know why. Why would you not ride the hot hand and give the ball to Thomas? I’m not asking for much. I just need a valid reason other than “That was the way we practiced it. (Thomas) is a better open-field runner,” as coach Bobby Bowden said after the game.

I’m not blaming the loss on that one play, nor on Sims (though he really should’ve protected the ball better). The fumble could’ve happened to anyone and we were outplayed the entire game anyway. FSU lacked any sort of fire and looked unprepared for Tech’s triple-option and defensive schemes. The only reason we even had a chance to win at the end was because the opposing team’s starting quarterback got knocked out of the game for the second straight week. I’m just tired of coaches and players in a variety of sports over-thinking the game and failing to recognize that when a guy is on fire, you give him the ball.

(exhale)

Oh well, at least the Lakers won last night…

(Home team in caps)

BUFFALO BILLS over NY Jets

Bounce-back game for the Bills after a tough road loss last week. By the way: it’s week 9 and there hasn’t been much to indicate the Madden Curse has struck Brett Favre or the Packers. Everyone suspects that Favre is playing injured, so that could be it. Both teams are a mediocre 4-3 and no longer look like strong playoff contenders, so maybe the curse divided itself evenly. Just a thought. There’s still half a season remaining before we’ll know for sure.

CHICAGO BEARS over Detroit Lions

When asked what he brings to the Lions after signing a two-year contract on Saturday, quarterback Daunte Culpepper said, “Well, I know where the back of the end zone is and how to keep from running out of it.”

Jacksonville Jaguars over CINCINNATI BENGALS

My condolences if you drafted anybody on these teams in your fantasy league other than quarterback David Garrard. I love how the Jaguars saw that they needed more weapons at the wide receiver spot and decided the solution was bringing in Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson during the off-season. Bet you forgot they played for the Jags, didn’t you?

CLEVELAND BROWNS over Baltimore Ravens

When I saw this game on the schedule, I had to wonder whether my friend Matt and his family still harbored homicidal tendencies toward former Ravens owner Art Modell for moving the Browns to Baltimore and winning a Super Bowl there. I know he’s 83-years-old now, but they were pretty bitter about that.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Green Bay Packers

I’ve been burned picking against the Titans several times this year, so I refuse to do it this week — especially at home against a team that might be sharing the Madden Curse.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

How much better would the Bucs be with a big play wide receiver and a quarterback that was reasonably confident he’d be the starter on a weekly basis?

ST. LOUIS RAMS over Arizona Cardinals

This prediction is based on the belief that Steven Jackson is playing. He’s officially listed as a game-time decision, but his personal Web site states “So to be clear: I am playing. Be ready.” If he doesn’t play, let’s pretend this pick never happened, ’kay?

MINNESOTA VIKINGS over Houston Texans

Houston has won three straight games after dropping their first four, but the Vikings are at home coming off a bye week. I realize this is as illogical as giving Marcus Sims the ball on the goal line when Jermaine Thomas has been running rampant, but I am nothing if not a hypocrite…

Miami Dolphins over DENVER BRONCOS

…I also lack standards, which is why I’m picking against Denver when they too are at home coming off a bye. I wanted to take the Broncos here, but that defense still can’t stop anyone and they have almost no healthy running backs.

Atlanta Falcons over OAKLAND RAIDERS

In the latest example of how much the Raiders suck, I’m taking Rookie of the Year favorite Matt Ryan on the road in Oakland this week.

NY GIANTS over Dallas Cowboys

I’m setting the over/under for when we see quarterback Brooks Bollinger in for the Cowboys at “late second quarter” and taking the under.

Philadelphia Eagles over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Battle of the ’Staches! Brian Westbrook is playing so the only way the Eagles lose this game is if they were partying too hard following the Phillies’ World Series win.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over New England Patriots

Remember when this was a yearly match-up between the two best teams in the league? Those were the days…

Pittsburgh Steelers over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Redskins might be without Santana Moss and the Steelers are getting back Willie Parker and Santonio Holmes this week. If the Steelers want to be taken seriously, they cannot lose two big games in consecutive weeks.

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 67-48

Smokin’ like Joakim Noah: My NBA ’08-’09 Predictions

Premo needs to provide the soundtrack for all televised basketball games and the NBA 2K series…

I’m a glutton for punishment. Despite making a lot of bad calls in last year’s predictions, I’m back for a preview of the NBA’s 2008-2009 season. Why not? I did make a few good calls too. But before me move on, I think it’s important that I atone for the transgressions of last year’s column and start things off with a clean slate. Hoops is a sacred sport, after all…

Dumbest Moments from My ’07-’08 Preview Column

-Assuming that after signing his new contract Vince Carter would be “newly committed” and a factor in the Nets gaining the fifth seed in the East. I seriously must’ve been drunk when I wrote that. I don’t know what I was thinking.

- “[LeBron James] got his vision corrected and developed a jump-shot.” Sort of. LeBron did develop a jump-shot, but it was only consistent playing with the USA team during the summer before the season.

-“ Gilbert Arenas is healthy…” No, he isn’t — then or now.

-“You can expect [the Mavericks] to roll through the regular season once more.” To be fair, this was before the spontaneous strengthening of the Western Conference, Avery Johnson losing the team, Josh Howard’s implosion and the Jason Kidd-for-young-quick-defensive stud-future star point guard-Devin Harris panic trade. Part of me feels like I should’ve seen disaster on the horizon regardless.

-Mentioning Steve Francis as a key addition to the Houston Rockets as if he was going to somehow contribute to that team.

-Predicting the Memphis Grizzlies would get the eighth seed, almost putting them at seven (ahead of my Los Angeles Lakers!) and saying they had “the edge” on the New Orleans Hornets (my sleeper playoff team). Yeah, I’ve got no defense for that one.

Oof. Well, I feel better. Moving on…

Eastern Conference Playoff Seeds

1) Boston Celtics

Getting past my intense feelings of hate toward the Celtics, I can’t deny that this is a great team. The absence of James Posey and P.J. Brown hurts, but I have no doubt they’ll find someone to fill the void.

2) Detroit Pistons

Go ahead and bet against them. I dare you.

3) Cleveland Cavaliers

Defense wins championships and the Cavs have that. Their problem has been a drought-prone offense with LeBron James as the only one capable of creating his own shot and/or being a go-to scorer. For that reason, the acquisition of point guard Mo Williams in the off-season has been slightly downplayed recently: not only has James never had a sidekick on the level of Williams, but pairing Mo in the backcourt with Delonte West—one of the only Cavs who made crunch time plays in the Boston series—is a brilliant decision. Don’t be surprised if they make it to the Finals.

4) Orlando Magic

Just like last year, their success depends on the guard play. Dwight Howard is going to carry the team, with assistance from Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. They need Jameer Nelson to give them more than he has and for Mickael Pietrus to prove he’s a starter in this league.

5) Philadelphia 76ers

I’ve got a bad feeling about this team. It isn’t the lack of an outside-scoring threat to spread the floor for Elton Brand and their slashers, as I have no doubt that’ll get corrected. They overachieved last year and are overhyped this year, which has me waiting for bad luck to befall them. If it does, blame Brand for screwing over the Clippers.

6) Toronto Raptors

Drop them 1-3 spots if Jermaine O’Neal goes down with an injury. Put them above the 76ers if Andrea Bargnani ever achieves his potential.

7) Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade was playing off the chain in the Olympics. Forget all the question marks about their point guard and center spots: if Wade is healthy, the Shawn Marion-Michael Beasley-Wade trio can make some noise. Why not? Kobe Bryant did it with worse in a tougher conference back in 2005 and 2006. Just sayin’.

8) Chicago Bulls

I’m writing off last year. Scott Skiles lost that team. This same basic team was in the playoffs the three seasons prior to last year. I’ve been a huge fan of rookie point guard Derrick Rose from the start of the 2007 NCCA season and I think his addition is going to give them something they’ve needed the most: a true leader. I don’t know if he’ll achieve that this season necessarily, but the kid is the truth.

Sleeper: New York Knicks

It feels really weird typing that, but my gut tells me they could be a surprise. There’s a lot of parity in the East after the first 4-5 teams, so hear me out. The Atlanta Hawks will miss Josh Childress and subsequently have “regression” written all over them. The Washington Wizards are without Gilbert Arenas again, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are injury prone and they’ve already lost starting center Brendan Haywood to an injury. Plus they were both in the playoffs last year and don’t really count as sleepers. I picked Toronto as a sleeper team last year and feel stupid to this day for justifying choosing a team coming off a playoff berth as a sleeper.

The New Jersey Nets are rebuilding, the Indiana Pacers aren’t that much farther ahead, and the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks are complete messes. The complaint about the Knicks has always been that they did so little with so much talent. Mike D’Antoni is a great coach and it’s possible that he could whip this team into enough shape to compete for an eighth seed like the Hawks did last year.

Western Conference Playoff Seeds

1) New Orleans Hornets

I’m too neurotic to pick my team to finish in first. Can’t do it. The Hornets came within a few games of the top seed last year and my gut tells me they win those games this year.

2) L.A. Lakers

I’ve been saying most of the off-season that Lamar Odom should be the Lakers sixth man, so I’m pleased that this appears to be our game plan. It’s the perfect role for him, playing the power forward version of Manu Ginobili, playing starter minutes despite coming on with the second unit. But that’s just one solution. There are still a lot of questions about this team that need to be answered, preferably by the trade deadline. Most importantly: can we play defense the way we need too?

3) Utah Jazz

Why is everybody sleeping on this team? I was legitimately worried about the Lakers losing to them in the second round and if we play them again, I’ll be worried then too. They’ve kept their core together and moving Andrei Kirilenko to the bench was a great decision. He’ll thrive there and get to play at power forward, his unusually better position.

4) Houston Rockets

There are too many red flags about this team for me to put them higher than a fourth seed, even though they could potentially win the West. They’ve got offense, defense and depth, so how far they go depends entirely on health and chemistry.

5) Phoenix Suns

I was ready to write off both the Suns and the Dallas Mavericks and predict that one or both of them would miss the playoffs. Then I remembered that despite their first round exits, we only have a small sample size of what each team will be like post-trades. Both teams also have new coaches and have made some minor, but decent, additions. This is the season where we learn about them.

(PS: If the Suns do in fact get a five seed or higher, it will be because Amare Stoudamire puts up MVP numbers. Extrapolate his stats at the power forward spot after they got Shaq’s fat ass over an entire season: he’s going to be sick and if he didn’t go second – after LeBron – in your fantasy basketball drafts, that’s a damn shame.)

6) San Antonio Spurs

See Pistons, Detroit. Yes, they’re old. Yes, they looked it against the Lakers. But they still made it to the conference finals and they are a veteran core that knows how to win. They’ll tread water while Manu Ginobili is out, but he’ll be coming back from his injury in time for a late season push and by the playoffs should be healthy and back in game shape. That makes them dangerous. Plus, they win the title every other year.

7) Dallas Mavericks

See Suns, Phoenix. Additional note: I don’t care how far he may or may not have declined, but Jason Kidd is too good to let this team go down without a fight. Same goes for Dirk Nowitzki. Those two are the heart of this team and need to bitch-slap the rest of those guys around a little.

8) Portland Trailblazers

Count me among the believers of this team. Their potential is sky high. I’m not ready to put them ahead of the proven playoff teams until they show us that they belong there, but they are still dangerous.

Sleeper: Minnesota Timberwolves

Let’s be clear: the only way the T-Wolves are even in the playoff hunt this year is if the shit completely hits the fan with Dallas, Phoenix and Houston or a star goes down with an injury. And even if that happens, they’ll have to beat out recent playoff teams the Denver Nuggets, the L.A. Clippers and the Golden State Warriors. The Nuggets barely made it into the playoffs last year and got waxed by my Lakers. The Clippers are a bubble play-off team, so they don’t really count as a sleeper. Plus, I’m worried about injuries and their lack of depth. The Warriors are without one of their best players, moped-enthusiast Monta Ellis, for a few months and couldn’t make the playoffs last year with Baron Davis.

That leaves only the Oklahoma City Thundercats and the Sacramento Kings (both rebuilding), plus the Memphis Grizzlies, who have a lot of young talent, but lack balance and an identity. The Wolves have a 20-10 waiting to happen in Al Jefferson and they surrounded him with shooters, including Mike Miller (a huge upgrade on the wing) and rookie power forward Kevin Love (who’s also a great passer and rebounder). If this team can learn to play even a lick of defense, they could sneak into the eighth spot.

I’m not making any awards predictions this year because I decided it’s kind of goofy to do. I’ll give that shit out at the end of the season. In place of the predictions, I’m going to pass along this killer mixtape by DJ Premier, my all-time favorite producer/DJ, which I’ve been listening to while writing this.

The trek to the Finals begins tonight. Can’t wait.

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 8

Don’t make them angry, Eagles. You wouldn’t like them when they are angry…’course, you already know that

Sorry to make this introduction so short, but I have to call Frank Beamer to discuss the Seminoles’ game pl … I mean HUNTING! Beamer and I are going hunting with Matt Millen and Brett Favre next week! Yeah, that’s the ticket…

(Home team in caps)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over DALLAS COWBOYS

It was nice of Cowboys safety Roy Williams to get injured for the season in order to prevent a name controversy with recently-acquired wide receiver Roy Williams. I thought it was a real self-less gesture to make the new guy feel at home. And they say this team has no chemistry…

Washington Redskins over DETROIT LIONS

Even if Favre did give advice to former Detroit GM Matt Millen on how to beat the Packers, the whole controversy should be null and void since the Lions gave up 48 points that week.

MIAMI DOLPHINS over Buffalo Bills

Gut feeling, nothing more.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over St. Louis Rams

If Bill Belichick made sure his team didn’t lose to Norv Turner, you can be damn sure he’s not going to let them lose to Jim Haslett.

San Diego Chargers over New Orleans Saints (in London)

Hopefully this game is less wet and sloppy than last year’s overseas game. Both of these teams are banged up and can’t afford any more injuries.

NEW YORK JETS over Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost quarterbacks Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard for the season, will be starting Tyler Thigpen on Sunday and recently signed Quinn Gray as his back-up. No wonder Daunte Culpepper is trying to come out of retirement.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Atlanta Falcons

The Eagles must be stoked that the Phillies appearance in the World Series is distracting their fans from the fact that they are in last place. God help them if the Tampa Bay Rays win it all — things could get ugly in Philadelphia very quickly if the Eagles don’t take advantage of the injury situation in Dallas.

Arizona Cardinals over CAROLINA PANTHERS

I stubbornly went against the “pick home NFC South teams” grain last week and I’m stubbornly (and spitefully!) doing it again this week. The Cardinals are coming off a two-game win streak and a bye, plus they’ve got a chance to give themselves a bigger cushion atop their weak division.

BALTIMORE RAVENS over Oakland Raiders

I kind of want to take the Raiders in this game as a karma pick for Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs running his mouth on the radio. But Oakland snuck away with the home victory last week and I don’t think they are good enough to pull off two upsets in a row, especially on the road against a good defense.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Cleveland Browns

Yes, this is another “at home, coming off a bye” pick. I’d be more worried about the Jags missing wide receiver Matt Jones (who finally got suspended) if he was actually a game-changer, but none of the receivers on Jacksonville are that good anyway. What’s one less mediocre receiver? After all, not having Justin Gage hasn’t made the Titans any worse…

HOUSTON TEXANS over Cincinnati Bengals

Thank god the Bengals are hosting the Chiefs in the final game of the season because that might be their only chance to win a game all year.

New York Giants over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Aside from needing a few good underdog picks every week and preferring not to pick against my boys, I remembered that the Steelers offensive line hasn’t been able to protect Ben Roethlisberger most of this season. The Giants pass rush isn’t what it was last year, but you know their game plan is going to be knocking Big Ben around and disrupting Pittsburgh’s offense.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Seattle Seahawks

It would take a miracle for them to make the playoffs, but just watch Mike Singletary come in and turn the 49ers around, at least temporarily.

Indianapolis Colts over TENNESSEE TITANS

I know Tennessee is the best team in the league and the Colts got knocked around last week, but Indianapolis needs this win more. They are three games behind the Titans and tied with Jacksonville in the standings as it is. Another loss — especially against another division rival — could put them on a downward spiral right out of playoff contention, as crazy as that sounds. The Titans aren’t going undefeated and this smells like a Monday night classic to me.

Last Week: 9-5

Season: 59-42

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 7

Attention Jerry Jones: there’s another Roy Williams who looks ready for your team…

I could have started this column by talking about how I’m still dealing with the Giants embarrassing beat-down at the hands of the Browns on national television, but that would be disingenuous. I saw that loss coming. It was unfortunate that one of the few times I was able to watch my team play they had to suck worse than they have since last season, but I knew it was going to happen.

I knew that the Browns were too talented a team to have played as badly as they have and it was only a matter of time before they put it together. They were at home for a big Monday Night game. The Giants, meanwhile, have overachieved so far this season and a bad loss was inevitable. In their first four games, the Giants smacked around two of the worst teams in the league (Seahawks and Rams), had to come from behind to beat arguably the worst team in the league in overtime (Bengals) and struggled to win against the one decent team they played (Redskins).

I’m not complaining about a 4-1 record, just stating the facts. My team is good, but they aren’t “the best team in the league” as many experts were saying after the Seahawks game…

(Home team in caps)

Tennessee Titans over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

…nope, the best team in the league is the Tennessee Titans, who should have no trouble taking down the sorry Chiefs, even on the road.

BUFFALO BILLS over San Diego Chargers

The Bills are at home, coming off a bye week and a terrible loss, and getting back starting quarterback Trent Edwards. The Chargers are playing the early game on the east coast after traveling across the country. Advantage: Buffalo.

CHICAGO BEARS over Minnesota Vikings

It took six weeks to figure out, but I believe we can say this with some degree of certainty: the Vikings are not a playoff contender. Playoff contenders don’t escape with a 12-10 win against the Lions because the opposing team’s second-string quarterback runs out of the back of the end-zone on his own volition for a safety.

Pittsburgh Steelers over CINCINNATI BENGALS

So this is what I don’t get: when the Bengals were winning and things were going reasonably well, their players kept getting arrested. Now that the team is winless and imploding, the arrest frequency has gone down. That seems statistically counterintuitive. Somebody needs to get Malcolm Gladwell on this…

Dallas Cowboys over ST. LOUIS RAMS

What’s funnier: losing to the Cardinals in overtime on a blocked punt that was recovered for a touchdown; trading for a wide receiver named Roy Williams when you already have a safety named Roy Williams; giving up a first-, third- and sixth-round draft pick to get said wide receiver when passing the ball is not your team’s biggest weakness; almost costing your team a chance to win by yelling at the officials and getting a 15-yard penalty right before attempting a game-winning field goal; or bearing the last name Incognito? Ladies and Gentleman, the 2008 Dallas Cowboys and St. Louis Rams!

MIAMI DOLPHINS over Baltimore Ravens

For the past two years, I used to complain because the AFC game on CBS in this area was usually a Miami Dolphins game. This year I love that the Dolphins games are on, not because they are a great team, but because they’ve become so much fun to watch, win or lose. Kudos to Bill Parcells, Tony Sparano, the players and staff for getting this team headed in the right direction.

NY GIANTS over San Franciso 49ers

If the Giants are actually serious about repeating as Super Bowl champions, they need a good win here. For this week, “good win” is defined as “David Carr makes an appearance sometime in the second half.”

New Orleans Saints over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The popular trend right now is to pick the NFC South teams whenever they are at home. I don’t know the stats that have led to this school of thought, I’m simply telling you what I’ve heard and letting you know that I have no intention of following it. Blame it on my former roommate Nick, a diehard Saints fan who I lived with during their miracle season in 2006, but I continue to believe that New Orleans is a good team that will eventually work out the kinks and get back to where they were during that improbable playoff run.

HOUSTON TEXANS over Detroit Lions

Part of me wanted to write that I feel bad for continually making fun of Dan Orlovsky for running out of the back of his own end zone. Then I remembered that even the worst back-up quarterback in the NFL makes more money than I will probably ever see. I do stupid things multiple times a day every week of my life and I don’t get paid $927,000 a year for it. If somebody wanted to give me that money under the condition that just one of those boneheaded acts would bring me a week’s worth of constant ridicule in the media, followed by untold years of being the butt of an occasional joke, I would do it faster than the time it’ll take for the Texans to put this game away.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Indianapolis Colts

I know this doesn’t make sense considering the Packers haven’t been impressive since they thrashed Detroit in week 2 and the Colts earned back the benefit of the doubt by lighting up that solid Baltimore defense for a 31-3 win last week. The only reason I’m picking them is because they are one of the only good underdogs playing at home and I feel like I should pick at least one of those teams to win. It’s terrible logic, but it has worked well for me so far.

NY Jets over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Speaking of home underdogs, I’m going to feel really stupid if the Raiders win this one. I almost picked them, but they look even worse without Lane Kiffin there. Is anybody else praying that Al Davis completely snaps and appoints himself coach of the team? How amazing would it be if that happened? I would try to watch every Oakland game possible in the hopes that I’d see Al on the sidelines, running crazy plays like punting the ball on first down.

(Note: For the past year or more I have half-seriously argued that teams should try punting on first down at some point during the first quarter. I realize this isn’t great strategy, giving away an offensive possession and putting your defense back on the field. All I’m saying is that if you had a solid defense and punted the ball on first down, I think it would completely mess with the heads of everyone on the opposing team and take them out of the game mentally. Especially if you stopped them on the ensuing series. It would be demoralizing. You are basically telling your opponent, “We are so confident that we’ll win we’re giving you a free possession as charity.” Crazy idea, I admit, but not completely without merit.)

Cleveland Browns over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I have one reason for making this pick: spite.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS over Seattle Seahawks

Right now Jon Gruden is proving why it’s a good idea to keep 37 veteran quarterbacks on your team.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Denver Broncos

Remember how I recently gave the Colts an ultimatum for getting my benefit of the doubt when doing these picks? Same goes for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Not having Tom Brady makes them no better or worse (possibly still better) than plenty of other, better performing teams right now. Losing Brady sucks and it will be understandable if they don’t meet pre-season expectations, but there’s no excuse for not playing well.

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 50-37

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 6

Scarier: Al Davis or his team’s future?

My apologies if any of this reads funny: my ears are still partially ringing from the amazing DJ Z-Trip set last night. He rocked the party for 2+ hours playing some of his classic mixes (“Testify” by Rage Against the Machine over Michael Jackson’s “Billie Jean”) with some newer stuff (Justice’s “Genesis” fused with “Hip-Hop is Dead” by Nas), and my head hasn’t been right all day.

Speaking of not right, last week demonstrated why it’s good to pick well early: I went 6-8 in my picks, the first time this season I didn’t finish above .500. I’ve been on a downward trend lately, so I’m hoping this is my comeback week…

(Home team in caps)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS over St. Louis Rams

The Rams are hoping this is their comeback week too, playing in their first game since they fired coach Scott Linehan in favor of defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Two problems: their defense is part of the reason they are so terrible in the first place and they are playing the hottest team in the league.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS over Carolina Panthers

Since these are two of the hardest teams in the league to figure out and pick games for, I’m just going with the home team.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Baltimore Ravens

I’m re-extending my ultimatum from last week to the Colts because their win over the Texans was incredibly lucky. If they can’t beat a solid, but not spectacular, Ravens team at home, this is the last time I’m giving them a “benefit of the doubt” pick.

HOUSTON TEXANS over Miami Dolphins

I’m starting to really like this Dolphins team: they’re scrappy and fun to watch. But this is a must win game for the Texans at home, so I have to pick them to take this one.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS over Detroit Lions

Boy, the Vikings needed a game like this against the pathetic Lions after a brutal opening schedule. Is 300 yards and 6 touchdowns too conservative a prediction for Adrian Peterson?

NEW ORLEANS over Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are another team that fired its coach going into the bye, except that Lane Kiffin is actually a good coach who had his team heading in the right direction (and would probably be doing better if owner Al Davis wasn’t meddling so much). The Saints have a really bad habit of losing games that they shouldn’t, but I think they recover from last week’s heartbreak.

NEW YORK JETS over Cincinnati Bengals

Brett Favre vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick. ’Nough said.

ATLANTA FALCONS over Chicago Bears

This one’s a toss-up. I needed another underdog pick and after they beat the Packers at Lambeau Field, I’m convinced that the Falcons are decent.

Jacksonville Jaguars over DENVER BRONCOS

I know, they beat the Bucs last week and the Jaguars lost to the Steelers, but I’m really starting to doubt that the Broncos are a great team. The offense has started to come down to Earth a little and their defense is still mediocre. I’m not going to feel comfortable picking them until they show some consistency.

Dallas Cowboys over ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is a popular upset pick this week, which I think is completely misguided. The Cardinals probably won’t have Anquan Boldin and their defense gave up 56 points to Favre and the Jets two weeks ago. What do you think Tony Romo/T.O./Marion Barber/Felix Jones plan to do to them? People are focusing too much on Arizona taking down a previously undefeated Buffalo team that was without its starting quarterback and Dallas struggling and dealing with off the field distractions.

SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia Eagles

I wish I had a justification for this pick other than “The Eagles can’t score on the goal line.”

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS over Green Bay Packers

And I wish I had a better justification for this pick other than “The Packers lost at home to the Falcons last week and I’m concerned about their performance against birds of prey.”

New England Patriots over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

When the season started, could we have predicted this would be the “Battle of Teams That Lost to the Miami Dolphins in Consecutive Weeks”? I’m taking Bill Belichick over Norv Turner every day of the week.

New York Giants over CLEVELAND BROWNS

My team is going to lose their first game eventually and I’m always going to think it’s going to be the next one until it happens. I’d pick the Giants to lose this game (the Browns are at home for a primetime Monday night game), but I did that last week and they decimated the Seahawks. I’d rather be wrong about picking us to win than right about picking us to lose.

Last Week: 6-8

Season: 42-31

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 5

Ted, to the home state G-men: don’t believe your hype

This is not an illusion: my weekly picks column really is finished on a Friday rather than the morning of the games. I had to work ahead this week because I’m going to be in Orlando this weekend for the Against Me! / Ted Leo & the Pharmacists show at the House of Blues on Saturday. Amazing double-bill, but since political, classicist punk bands have little to do with professional football I’ll save that for another day.

I’ve got seven underdogs and seven favorites picked to win this week, so I expect my 14-game buffer to take a serious hit.

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Washington Redskins

Philadelphia has a lot to be happy about right now: the Phillies are up 2-0 in the first round of the MLB playoffs, the 76ers added Elton Brand to a young, exciting lineup that hopes to compete for the Eastern Conference crown and the Eagles—despite last week’s loss—look like one of the best teams in the NFL. Despite this, I guarantee you that every Philly fan is anxiously expecting something absolutely terrible to happen to one (or all three) of the teams.

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Kansas City Chiefs

I know I predicted the Broncos upset last week, but that doesn’t mean I’m buying into this Chiefs team.

DETROIT LIONS over Chicago Bears

Not only are the Lions coming off a bye, but they are playing at home in front of their relieved, excited fans for the first time since long-hated GM Matt Millen was fired. If there was any week to believe that the sorry Lions can win, this is the one.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Atlanta Falcons

If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play and I get screwed out of another correct pick like last week’s Bengals game (more on that later), I swear to God I’m gorging myself to death on cheese bratwurst.

Mmm…cheesy brats…

BALTIMORE RAVENS over Tennessee Titans

This pick goes against all common sense, logic and decency, but I’m making it anyway. The Ravens nearly knocked off the Steelers last week and I like the idea of them taking out their frustration on the Titans in front of a home crowd.

MIAMI DOLPHINS over San Diego Chargers

The Chargers defense hasn’t been very impressive and the Dolphins are playing at home coming off a bye and a big win on the road in New England. However, this pick is based more on the hope that the Dolphins keep running unorthodox offensive plays during their rebuilding process. I don’t understand why teams don’t do that more — if an organization, its players and fans are all aware that they aren’t going to contend for a few years, why not have fun and just play an exciting brand of football? Learn the playbook, grow as a team and execute with professionalism, of course, but don’t be afraid to pull out all the stops. You might even get a few extra wins out of it.

Indianapolis Colts over HOUSTON TEXANS

If the Colts lose this game, it is the last time I’m giving them a “benefit of the doubt” pick. The only reason I didn’t take the Texans here is because I expect the Tony Dungy/Peyton Manning-era Colts to be able to right the ship. That assumption goes out the window if they don’t win here.

Seattle Seahawks over NY GIANTS

Everybody else in the NFC East has lost at least one game, we almost choked away the Bengals win two weeks ago and Plaxico Burress is suspended this week. I don’t like when my team gets too comfortable and with the Hawks getting back two of their starting wide receivers (Deion Branch and Bobby Engram), I feel like this is the game the G-Men get knocked down a peg.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over DENVER BRONCOS

I swear: I’m not picking on the Broncos, no matter how much it appears that way. Denver can’t stop the run and the Bucs have running backs and a good enough defense to neutralize the Broncos’ potent air attack.

Buffalo Bills over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Pretty simple rule here: if you play an undefeated, exciting team the week after allowing Brett Favre to throw a single-game career best 6 touchdowns on you, I’m not picking you to win.

DALLAS COWBOYS over Cincinnati Bengals

The last-minute deactivation of Carson Palmer last week cost me and untold millions of people a correct pick. I had time to go back and edit my already-posted column and online picks, but in the interest of honesty I stuck by my original prediction even though there was no way the Bengals were winning that game. This week they get to play the best team in the league coming off a frustrating loss, so I expect the Cowboys to put up 50 points by half-time.

New England Patriots over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Patriots had an entire bye week to teach Matt Cassel how to get Randy Moss the ball. No excuses.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Pittsburgh Steelers

The silver lining to Rashard Mendenhall’s season-ending injury: the return of Davenpoops! I’m so excited I might get drunk and defecate in the closest laundry basket. Incidentally, what is the most dangerous job position right now: Pittsburgh running back, Seahawk wide receiver or being Anquan Boldin?

Minnesota Vikings over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I leave you this week with a math equation:

The return of left tackle Bryant McKinnie + Adrian Peterson + desperation > Banged-up, atrocious Saints defense – starting rookie defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis

Last Week: 8-5

Season: 37-23

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 4

You know where you are, Lane Kiffin?! You’re in the jungle, baby. You’re gonna diiiiiiiiiee!!!

The first batch of teams goes on bye this week and that is murder on the good game/bad game ratio. The game I’m most interested in seeing (Tennessee-Minnesota) isn’t on television, but Tampa Bay-Green Bay looks interesting and the Dallas-Washington game has the potential to be competitive (or a blowout). Two of the more intriguing games have primetime slots: Philadelphia at Chicago on Sunday night, which I can watch before and after True Blood (*mildly explicit link warning*), and Baltimore at Pittsburgh on Monday evening.

Last week was rough on my picks, as my streak of weeks where I got at least 10 correctly ended at 2. This week doesn’t promise to be much easier with fewer games and way too many home teams favored to win.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI BENGALS over Cleveland Browns

“The Disappointing Ohio Team Bowl.” I see this game being another ugly shoot-out with no defense. Of course, it could also be boring as sin. The Bengals have to win eventually…right?

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Houston Texans

Is it just me or has there been almost no media talk about Jags’ wide receiver Matt Jones getting arrested for coke possession? I bet if it was Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones there would be a whole lot more noise being made. Just sayin’.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Minnesota Vikings

I believe in this Tennessee defense until I see otherwise. Locking down Adrian Peterson will be a test, but I’m more interested in the battle between Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte—the first of several match-ups this week between old and/or washed-up quarterbacks.

KANSAS CITY over Denver Broncos

Last week when I predicted that the football gods would strike down the Broncos due to the bad call that helped them beat the Chargers, I forgot to factor in that the Saints kind of suck. Since the Broncos were once again assisted by a bad call and I need to pick at least a few upsets, I’m going with the miserable Chiefs in this one.

Green Bay Packers over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

I don’t know what to make of this Bucs team. They are good, but not great. A solid defense that is getting up there in age. A Brian Griese-led offense with a good running back tandem (Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn, who hasn’t looked this good in years) and an inconsistent passing game (Joey Galloway’s injury is hurting them). They look bound for a playoff berth with another first round bounce, but Gruden has worked miracles before and this season is wide open.

Despite devoting all that time to the Bucs, I think the Pack wins this: they’ve shown glimmers of being dominant and once again, I need a few road underdog picks (yes, Tampa is favored).

CAROLINA PANTHERS over Atlanta Falcons

I refuse to pick Matt Ryan to win on the road until it happens…which I could very easily see being this week.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over San Francisco 49ers

Is it possible that the 49ers aren’t as bad as we thought? I’d pick them to win this one, but I can’t see the Saints falling to 1-3. I have more respect for them than that. On the other hand, you know their season isn’t going well when I had to send my friend Nick, a lifelong Saints fan, the following message on Monday: “I knew [Jeremy] Shockey’s yearly trip to the injury report was coming, I just didn’t expect it this soon.”

NEW YORK JETS over Arizona Cardinals

Brett Favre and Kurt Warner collide in “The AARP Bowl”! In all seriousness, it’s great to see the two of them playing at such a high level so long after their Super Bowl-winning primes.

San Diego Chargers over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Predicting when Lane Kiffin might actually be fired this year is sort of like predicting when Chinese Democracy would come out during the last two decades (random note: it might actually be happening in November), since Al Davis is arguably just as crazy as Axl Rose is. Which one happens sooner? I don’t know, but I would love to see people betting on that in Vegas.

Buffalo Bills over ST. LOUIS RAMS

With quite a few amazingly bad teams (Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland), how screwed up is St. Louis that everyone pretty much agrees that they are the worst? The owner threatens to make changes if the team doesn’t improve, the coach responds by benching his quarterback (Marc Bulger) in favor of Trent Green, the team’s best player (running back Steven Jackson) criticizes the benching and the star wide receiver (Torry Holt) apologizes to Bulger on behalf of the entire offense for not making enough plays. This has the potential to become really ugly and unintentionally hysterical.

(What isn’t funny, however, is the potential for a serious injury: I’m seriously concerned about Trent Green’s health. He has a bad history with concussions and the Rams offensive line can’t block a stool right now.)

DALLAS COWBOYS over Washington Redskins

This is one of the picks I really hope I get wrong, but it’ll be a win-win for me regardless. I always root for the NFC East teams to take each other down (especially the better teams like Dallas) and give my Giants an advantage. Unfortunately Dallas still looks like the consensus Super Bowl pick. Of course, that was true last year and we know how that went.

Philadelphia Eagles over CHICAGO BEARS

You know who else looks like a Super Bowl contender? The freakin’ Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC East is serious business. Philly is actually the rival city that I hate the least, mostly because I empathize with the suffering of their fans. Plus I’ve always liked Donovan McNabb, kind of like how I’ve always respect Emmitt Smith even though I hate the Cowboys with every fiber of my being.

Eagles star player Brian Westbrook missed practice and is probably a game-time decision, so if he can’t go it’ll be interesting to see if the offense can still dominate without him.

Baltimore Ravens over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

My other crazy upset pick of the week. Not only are the Steelers without running back Willie Parker, but their offensive line hasn’t been able to protect Big Ben against good defenses and I think the Ravens defense is back. I like the potential for a Monday Night classic.

Last Week: 9-7

Season: 29-18

2008 NFL Predictions – Week 3

The Broncos better watch out for the cracked-PVC pipe-wielding hand of the football fates…

This week’s picks are coming in late and under deadline, but I have a valid excuse: my younger sister’s birthday was yesterday and I spent a lot of time coordinating Saturday’s celebratory get-together. My girlfriend and I baked homemade Peanut Butter Chip Brownie Cupcakes that had our guests clamoring for the recipe (she did almost all the work) and between partying and shuttling the birthday girl to and from the FSU game, it just wasn’t the occasion for column writing.

The first of this weekend’s games start in less than three hours, so just in case I run late picking the afternoon, evening and Monday night games, I’m going to update this blog live as I finish each pick.

(Home team in caps)

BUFFALO BILLS over Oakland Raiders

Like everyone else in the country, I’m starting to buy into the Bills as this year’s sleeper playoff team. As frisky as the Raiders looked last week, it was against the sorry Kansas City Chiefs so I’m not jumping back on to that bandwagon just yet.

NY GIANTS over Cincinnati Bengals

If I wasn’t a Giants homer, this would be my risky, upset-special pick of the week. The Giants have looked solid, but against weaker competition and the Bengals have looked atrocious, but against a great defensive team (Tennessee) and a potentially-great defensive team (Baltimore). The Bengals have too much talent to be as bad as they looked, so I could easily see them clawing out a win with their backs against the wall.

However, the Giants are well-coached and I’d like to think that they aren’t going to take any team lightly, especially as members of the insanely-competitive NFC East division. Plus, it’s hard to feel confident picking the Bengals after my best friend (who owns Carson Palmer in his fantasy football league) sent me the following text in frustration last weekend: “When did Wyatt Sexton become the Bengals quarterbacks coach?” Ouch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over CHICAGO BEARS

This is not a great week to pick against the home team. Other than the Green Bay Packers (who play against Super Bowl favorites the Dallas Cowboys), every home team is favored to win. I expect to lose a lot of ground with my picks this week since I’m making a lot of risky picks, starting with this one—especially fitting, as I have no good argument for making it.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Houston Texans

The Titans defense looks nasty and I remember the time that Kerry Collins took a nasty defense to a Super Bowl (and then lost in the second most painful sports experience of my life). Of course, that was almost eight years ago and Collins had Tiki Barber in his prime and Ike Hilliard and Amani Toomer instead of Justin Gage and whoever else the Titans have at wide receiver. Chris Johnson has been a productive running back, so I see no reason why the Titans can’t run and defend their way into the playoffs like they did last year. I’m also worried about the Texans having so much extra time off.

Arizona Cardinals over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

This is a combination of wanting the rest of the NFC East teams to lose and needing to pick at least a few road team underdogs because you know some of them are going to win. While Redskins do have a solid defense, the Cardinals passing game is simply clicking right now.

Carolina Panthers over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I initially had the Vikings getting back on track in this one, but then I remembered that the Panthers have looked good, they’re getting Steve Smith back and the only way to beat the Vikings is to pass on them. This is the most obvious road team underdog pick and I just know I’ll feel stupid later today if I don’t pick them.

ATLANTA FALCONS over Kansas City Chiefs

Priceless moment of the week: Larry Johnson complaining about not getting enough touches after he rushed for 22 yards on 12 attempts against the horrendous Raiders and signing that big contract last season. The Chiefs are bad.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are pretty bad too and this gives the Patriots a chance to have an extended practice session for Matt Cassel. He’s been a good game manager and is finding Wes Welker in the slot, but he needs to learn how to get the ball to Randy Moss.

New Orleans Saints over DENVER BRONCOS

I was tempted to put an asterisk next to my right-wrong totals below after that botched officiating call in the Denver-San Diego game handed me an extra victory, but I think that would set a bad precedent for the column (as well as look incredibly stupid). Almost like Final Destination, but with football losses, I think the fates are going to strike down the Broncos this week against a Saints team hungry for a bounce back after blowing their game against the Redskins.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Detroit Lions

This is arguably, the worst game of the weekend…

St. Louis Rams over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

…no, wait! THIS one is. I don’t care that the Rams might actually be the worst team in the NFL, the Seahawks have no receivers and managed to lose at home to the 49ers. The Rams owner threatened to make changes if things don’t turn around and wide receiver Torry Holt called out the offensive line for not protecting the quarterback and opening up holes for Steven Jackson. My apologies to the entire city of Seattle, but I see the Rams making something happen this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Jaguars are in a must-win situation and have ran all over the Colts in recent meetings, which makes the loss of safety Bob Sanders even worse for Indianapolis. I also kind of like the Colts better when they are battling for their lives instead of dominating teams—it makes them more interesting and fun to root for.

Cleveland Browns over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens also had extra time off and since I factored that in to my pick against the Texans I feel obligated to pick against Baltimore. The Browns are going to be desperate to prove that last season’s 10-6 finish wasn’t a fluke and they aren’t who we thought they were, so expect them to take it out on the Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Pittsburgh Steelers

How great was that Eagles-Cowboys game on Monday? I’m so glad football season is here. This is a potential Super Bowl preview and a complete toss-up. Both teams look excellent, but I think the Eagles are going to want it just a little bit more after that heartbreak of a loss last week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys, on the other hand, I have looking at a letdown game after all the emotion and energy they expended taking down the Eagles. Super Bowl favorites or not, they have to lose to somebody and this is a statement game for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Lambeau Field is going to be electric and I don’t think the Cowboys will have enough left for back-to-back epic battles.

SAN DIEGO over NY Jets

I’ve said it from week 1, but the Jets just won’t be fun without their fans losing hope and going crazy early. I think Favre and company will make it to the playoffs, but the Chargers are owed a victory after last week’s nonsense.

Last Week: 10-5 (Houston-Baltimore game re-scheduled due to stadium damage)

Season: 20-11