2008 NFL Predictions – Week 3

The Broncos better watch out for the cracked-PVC pipe-wielding hand of the football fates…

This week’s picks are coming in late and under deadline, but I have a valid excuse: my younger sister’s birthday was yesterday and I spent a lot of time coordinating Saturday’s celebratory get-together. My girlfriend and I baked homemade Peanut Butter Chip Brownie Cupcakes that had our guests clamoring for the recipe (she did almost all the work) and between partying and shuttling the birthday girl to and from the FSU game, it just wasn’t the occasion for column writing.

The first of this weekend’s games start in less than three hours, so just in case I run late picking the afternoon, evening and Monday night games, I’m going to update this blog live as I finish each pick.

(Home team in caps)

BUFFALO BILLS over Oakland Raiders

Like everyone else in the country, I’m starting to buy into the Bills as this year’s sleeper playoff team. As frisky as the Raiders looked last week, it was against the sorry Kansas City Chiefs so I’m not jumping back on to that bandwagon just yet.

NY GIANTS over Cincinnati Bengals

If I wasn’t a Giants homer, this would be my risky, upset-special pick of the week. The Giants have looked solid, but against weaker competition and the Bengals have looked atrocious, but against a great defensive team (Tennessee) and a potentially-great defensive team (Baltimore). The Bengals have too much talent to be as bad as they looked, so I could easily see them clawing out a win with their backs against the wall.

However, the Giants are well-coached and I’d like to think that they aren’t going to take any team lightly, especially as members of the insanely-competitive NFC East division. Plus, it’s hard to feel confident picking the Bengals after my best friend (who owns Carson Palmer in his fantasy football league) sent me the following text in frustration last weekend: “When did Wyatt Sexton become the Bengals quarterbacks coach?” Ouch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over CHICAGO BEARS

This is not a great week to pick against the home team. Other than the Green Bay Packers (who play against Super Bowl favorites the Dallas Cowboys), every home team is favored to win. I expect to lose a lot of ground with my picks this week since I’m making a lot of risky picks, starting with this one—especially fitting, as I have no good argument for making it.

TENNESSEE TITANS over Houston Texans

The Titans defense looks nasty and I remember the time that Kerry Collins took a nasty defense to a Super Bowl (and then lost in the second most painful sports experience of my life). Of course, that was almost eight years ago and Collins had Tiki Barber in his prime and Ike Hilliard and Amani Toomer instead of Justin Gage and whoever else the Titans have at wide receiver. Chris Johnson has been a productive running back, so I see no reason why the Titans can’t run and defend their way into the playoffs like they did last year. I’m also worried about the Texans having so much extra time off.

Arizona Cardinals over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

This is a combination of wanting the rest of the NFC East teams to lose and needing to pick at least a few road team underdogs because you know some of them are going to win. While Redskins do have a solid defense, the Cardinals passing game is simply clicking right now.

Carolina Panthers over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I initially had the Vikings getting back on track in this one, but then I remembered that the Panthers have looked good, they’re getting Steve Smith back and the only way to beat the Vikings is to pass on them. This is the most obvious road team underdog pick and I just know I’ll feel stupid later today if I don’t pick them.

ATLANTA FALCONS over Kansas City Chiefs

Priceless moment of the week: Larry Johnson complaining about not getting enough touches after he rushed for 22 yards on 12 attempts against the horrendous Raiders and signing that big contract last season. The Chiefs are bad.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are pretty bad too and this gives the Patriots a chance to have an extended practice session for Matt Cassel. He’s been a good game manager and is finding Wes Welker in the slot, but he needs to learn how to get the ball to Randy Moss.

New Orleans Saints over DENVER BRONCOS

I was tempted to put an asterisk next to my right-wrong totals below after that botched officiating call in the Denver-San Diego game handed me an extra victory, but I think that would set a bad precedent for the column (as well as look incredibly stupid). Almost like Final Destination, but with football losses, I think the fates are going to strike down the Broncos this week against a Saints team hungry for a bounce back after blowing their game against the Redskins.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Detroit Lions

This is arguably, the worst game of the weekend…

St. Louis Rams over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

…no, wait! THIS one is. I don’t care that the Rams might actually be the worst team in the NFL, the Seahawks have no receivers and managed to lose at home to the 49ers. The Rams owner threatened to make changes if things don’t turn around and wide receiver Torry Holt called out the offensive line for not protecting the quarterback and opening up holes for Steven Jackson. My apologies to the entire city of Seattle, but I see the Rams making something happen this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Jaguars are in a must-win situation and have ran all over the Colts in recent meetings, which makes the loss of safety Bob Sanders even worse for Indianapolis. I also kind of like the Colts better when they are battling for their lives instead of dominating teams—it makes them more interesting and fun to root for.

Cleveland Browns over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens also had extra time off and since I factored that in to my pick against the Texans I feel obligated to pick against Baltimore. The Browns are going to be desperate to prove that last season’s 10-6 finish wasn’t a fluke and they aren’t who we thought they were, so expect them to take it out on the Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Pittsburgh Steelers

How great was that Eagles-Cowboys game on Monday? I’m so glad football season is here. This is a potential Super Bowl preview and a complete toss-up. Both teams look excellent, but I think the Eagles are going to want it just a little bit more after that heartbreak of a loss last week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys, on the other hand, I have looking at a letdown game after all the emotion and energy they expended taking down the Eagles. Super Bowl favorites or not, they have to lose to somebody and this is a statement game for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Lambeau Field is going to be electric and I don’t think the Cowboys will have enough left for back-to-back epic battles.

SAN DIEGO over NY Jets

I’ve said it from week 1, but the Jets just won’t be fun without their fans losing hope and going crazy early. I think Favre and company will make it to the playoffs, but the Chargers are owed a victory after last week’s nonsense.

Last Week: 10-5 (Houston-Baltimore game re-scheduled due to stadium damage)

Season: 20-11